Rice vs Michigan admissions odds: which school is harder to get into overall?

I’m trying to build a realistic college list and I keep seeing Rice and Michigan mentioned as very different in selectivity. I know both are competitive, but I’m wondering which one is generally harder to get into overall.

I’m mostly looking for a broad comparison of admissions difficulty so I can understand how to think about them in terms of reach schools.
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Rice is harder to get into overall.

One big differentiator is scale. Rice is a small private university in Houston, so even though it attracts a national pool of very strong applicants, it enrolls a relatively small freshman class. Michigan, by contrast, is a large public university in Ann Arbor with far more total undergraduates and a much bigger incoming class, which makes overall admission less restrictive than Rice even though many Michigan applicants are also highly accomplished.

Another difference is how residency affects the process. Michigan is well known for being significantly more accessible to in-state students than to out-of-state students because it serves Michigan residents as a public flagship. Rice does not have that public-school residency split in the same way, so its admissions difficulty stays high across the board. For a student trying to label schools on a list, Rice is usually a high reach for almost everyone, while Michigan ranges from reach to more plausible depending on where you live and the strength of your application.

Program choice also matters more at Michigan in some cases. Admission to the university as a whole is one thing, but certain Michigan colleges or pathways can feel more competitive than the overall school. Even with that nuance, for broad university-wide selectivity, Rice sits in the harder-to-get-into category.
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