How should I compare my admission chances at the University of Florida and the University of Miami?

Treat the University of Florida as the more academically metrics-driven and less predictable application, and treat the University of Miami as the school where the full presentation of your application can shift the outcome more. Neither should automatically be called a target simply because your grades and activities are competitive.

For UF, put the greatest weight on the strength of your academic record in context: demanding core courses, sustained grades, and test scores that are credible relative to UF’s published range. Florida residency can be relevant context, but it should not lead you to assume UF is a target.

For Miami, evaluate the academic numbers too, but scrutinize the qualitative parts of your application more closely. Your activities should show depth, contribution, and a coherent direction rather than a long list; the essay and recommendations should add evidence of how you would engage with Miami’s campus and academic opportunities. This can make Miami especially hard to classify from grades and scores alone.

If your course rigor and grades are clearly above the typical range and your testing is similarly strong where submitted, that school may be a reasonable target candidate, not a guarantee. If you are around the middle academically, classify both as reaches, then use your application quality, residency context for UF, and fit with Miami’s offerings to decide where your odds may be relatively better.