Is Notre Dame or the University of Wisconsin a better target for admissions odds?

I’m trying to build a realistic college list and keep seeing Notre Dame and the University of Wisconsin come up as possibilities. I know they are both strong schools, but I’m mainly wondering which one is generally considered the better bet for admissions odds for a student with solid grades and activities.
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The University of Wisconsin is the better target for admissions odds. Notre Dame is a much more selective private university with a national applicant pool, while Wisconsin, especially Madison, is still selective but is typically more attainable for a student with solid grades and activities. For many applicants, Notre Dame belongs closer to reach territory than target territory.

One big difference is the level of competition. Notre Dame attracts a very high concentration of applicants with top academics, strong extracurriculars, and polished applications, so even qualified students are often denied. Wisconsin also draws many strong applicants, but the bar for admission is usually less extreme, which makes it more realistic as a target depending on your academics and residency.

Residency matters a lot for Wisconsin in a way it does not for Notre Dame. If you are an in-state Wisconsin applicant, your odds are notably better and Madison can be a very reasonable target with strong preparation. If you are out of state, Wisconsin becomes more competitive, but it is still usually a safer admissions bet than Notre Dame.

The application style is also a factor. Notre Dame puts heavy weight on overall academic rigor and tends to expect a very strong profile across the board, not just solid grades. Wisconsin is certainly holistic too, but for a student building a realistic list, it more often lands in the target range while Notre Dame is better classified as a reach.
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